Key facts
- Seafarer deaths in the Black Sea surged in July due to intensified hostilities between Russia and Ukraine.
- Attacks on commercial shipping have significantly reduced grain exports from both nations.
- The International Maritime Organization has condemned the worsening maritime security.
- Russia and Ukraine have targeted each other's vessels and port infrastructure, impacting vital trade routes.
- Analysts warn that the disruption will likely lead to higher global food prices and worsen existing supply shocks.
Hostilities in the Black Sea have escalated, leading to a deadly summer for seafarers and raising significant concerns about global food prices. Both Russia and Ukraine have engaged in attacks on each other's ships and port infrastructure, severely disrupting vital grain exports.
According to estimates from the Turkish seafarers’ union, as many as 23 people died in July due to attacks on 35 ships in the Black Sea, making it the most dangerous body of water for commercial shipping. The head of the International Maritime Organization has condemned the "deterioration of maritime security around the globe" as attacks continued into August.
Russia initially targeted Ukrainian port infrastructure and vessels after its 2022 invasion, hindering grain exports. This July, Russia again struck key export hubs like Odesa and Chornomorsk. However, recent escalations also involve Ukrainian retaliatory attacks, including drone strikes on Russian vessels, some of which are allegedly part of a shadow fleet evading oil sanctions. Ukraine has also targeted ships and port buildings in the Russian Black Sea port of Novorossiysk.
Analysts at Vanguard noted that merchant vessels face increased risks due to their trading activities and the cargoes they carry, with attacks now extending beyond ports. This precarious situation has already led to a significant reduction in grain exports from both Russia and Ukraine.
Russia, the world's largest grain exporter, primarily ships its produce to the Middle East and North Africa. Ukraine ranks as the fifth-largest exporter. Following Ukrainian drone attacks in July, Russia suspended shipping in the Sea of Azov and began redirecting some grain exports. However, a substantial portion of Russia's seaborne grain exports still rely on Black Sea and Sea of Azov ports.
Estimates suggest Russian grain exports fell to 40% of normal capacity in August. Ukraine, despite a strong harvest, has also struggled to export large volumes, exporting only about a third of its potential capacity. While global wheat prices remain below their 2022 peak, analysts predict the current disruption to seaborne grain exports will likely push prices higher and exacerbate other food supply shocks, including those stemming from the conflict in the Middle East and adverse weather conditions in Europe and the developing El Niño system.