Key facts
- Bitcoin was trading at $83,823, up 0.28% on the day, at the start of October.
- October has historically returned 19.92% on average for crypto investors since 2013.
- Traders on Myriad give 90% odds on Bitcoin hitting a high of $85,000 in October.
- The Average Directional Index (ADX) for Bitcoin is 41.5, indicating a strong trend.
- The 50-day EMA is above the 200-day EMA, signaling a short-term uptrend.
Bitcoin began October trading at $83,823, marking the start of "Uptober," a month historically known for strong crypto market performance. This follows a September that, despite a late correction, still yielded a 6.33% gain for the cryptocurrency, defying the "Red September" moniker.
October has historically delivered an average return of 19.92% for crypto investors since 2013, according to CoinGlass data. However, last year saw a deviation from this trend, with October 2025 closing down 3.69%.
The broader macroeconomic environment presents a mixed picture. The Federal Reserve implemented a 25-basis-point rate hike on September 16, bringing the target range to 3.75%-4%, the first increase since July 2023. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh noted that inflation "remains elevated," and the central bank's projections suggest a possibility of one more hike this year, with the next decision due October 28. Rising interest rates typically make riskier assets like Bitcoin less attractive compared to safer investments such as Treasuries.
Bond yields have responded to the Fed's actions, with the 10-year Treasury closing September at a 52-week high of 5.289% and the 30-year at 5.632%. This rising yield environment presents direct competition for non-yielding assets like Bitcoin.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin ETFs saw a streak of inflows end on September 30, with $148.69 million in net outflows. Despite this, total net assets in Bitcoin ETFs remain over $101 billion. On the prediction market Myriad, traders are placing 90% odds on Bitcoin reaching $85,000 in October, with a 70% chance of hitting $87,500. However, the odds of a new all-time high before 2027 are only at 7%.