Key facts
- U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $134.4 million in net inflows to start October.
- The funds had $2.65 billion in net inflows in September.
- Bitcoin averaged an 18% gain in October over the past decade.
- The U.S. economy added 29,000 jobs in September, with unemployment at 4.2%.
- Traders assign a 93% chance Bitcoin will not reach a new all-time high in 2026.
U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds began October with $134.4 million in net inflows, according to data from Decrypt's tracker. This positive start followed a $148.7 million outflow on September 30, which ended a nine-session streak of inflows. September itself was the second-best month for these ETFs since October 2025, with $2.65 billion in net inflows, according to SoSoValue data. The positive start to October aligns with the crypto shorthand "Uptober," referring to the month's historical strength for Bitcoin. Stephen Wundke of Algoz noted that Bitcoin has averaged an 18% gain in October over the past decade, suggesting traders perceive more upside potential than downside risk. The release of a softer U.S. jobs report on Friday further supported market sentiment. The economy added only 29,000 jobs in September, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This data led to a significant drop in CME FedWatch odds for an October rate hike, from 70% to 14%. A less hawkish Federal Reserve stance typically benefits risk assets like Bitcoin. Bitcoin itself briefly touched $87,173 on Friday, nearing its September high of $87,354, before trading at $84,786 on Saturday morning. Cumulative net inflows for Bitcoin ETFs since their launch stand at $58.1 billion, with total net assets at $101.1 billion. Despite the inflows and positive sentiment, not all market participants are convinced of a significant breakout. Traders on Myriad, a prediction market, have assigned a 93% probability that Bitcoin will not achieve a new all-time high in 2026. Year-to-date ETF inflows remain under $1 billion, reflecting earlier outflows.