Key facts
- Bitcoin traded at $86,152.75, up 1.57% on the day.
- The U.S. added 29,000 jobs in September, significantly below the 84,000 forecast.
- The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%.
- CME FedWatch odds for an October Fed rate hike dropped to 14%.
- The total crypto market capitalization is above $3 trillion.
- The Fear & Greed Index reads 71, indicating "greed".
Bad economic news is proving to be good news for risk assets like Bitcoin, as a weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs report has significantly lowered the probability of further interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve.
The U.S. economy added only 29,000 jobs in September, a stark contrast to the 84,000 economists had predicted. Furthermore, the figures for the two preceding months were revised downward by a combined 60,000, and the unemployment rate climbed to 4.2%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This data has led Wall Street to believe that the pressure on the Federal Reserve to continue raising interest rates has eased. Consequently, the odds of a rate hike at the October meeting have plummeted to approximately 14%, down from around 70% earlier in the week. Prediction markets such as Kalshi, Polymarket, and Myriad also indicate an 80% probability of the Fed holding rates steady on October 28.
Bitcoin experienced a sharp increase in value following these macroeconomic developments. The total cryptocurrency market capitalization has surpassed $3 trillion, marking a 2.5% rise in the past 24 hours. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index is currently at 71, firmly within the "greed" territory. ETF flows have been positive, with an inflow of $102 million today, and Bitcoin's market dominance stands at 59.1%.
Technically, Bitcoin is showing signs of a strong uptrend. The Average Directional Index (ADX) is at 41.8, indicating a robust trend. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is above the 200-day EMA, a bullish signal. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is nearing 68.1, suggesting that the asset may be approaching overbought conditions, which could lead some traders to take profits. The Squeeze Momentum Indicator shows volatility has been released to the upside.