Key facts
- New US tariffs could slash Canada's fourth quarter growth to below 1%, according to Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem.
New US tariffs could reduce Canada's fourth-quarter economic growth to below 1%, Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem said on Monday. The tariffs threaten to delay business investment and hiring, adding to existing economic uncertainties. Macklem noted that while slower growth might curb inflation, the Middle East conflict and soaring oil prices could push it higher.

The imposition of new US tariffs on Canadian goods introduces significant uncertainty, potentially dampening economic growth and complicating the Bank of Canada's efforts to manage inflation. This situation highlights the sensitivity of the Canadian economy to trade relations with its largest partner and the dual pressures of geopolitical events on commodity prices.
New US tariffs could significantly reduce Canada's economic growth in the fourth quarter, potentially bringing it below 1%, Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem said on Monday. Macklem indicated that this escalation of trade tensions could lead businesses to postpone investment and hiring decisions.
Macklem noted that while slower growth might help to moderate inflation, the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and rising oil prices present an upward risk to inflation. Canada's annual inflation rate currently stands at 3%, exceeding the Bank of Canada's 2% target. If oil prices remain near $100 a barrel, inflation could edge higher.
In the second quarter, Canada's economy rebounded with annualized growth of 3.3%, as businesses and households adapted to nearly 18 months of existing US tariffs. However, the collapse of a prospective trade deal and new US tariffs have widened the rift between the two allies.
Macklem also mentioned that businesses have been adjusting their supply chains and sourcing strategies to mitigate the impact of tariffs. He added that slower population growth and an aging demographic are also affecting labor supply and consumer demand.
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