Geopolitics & Global Risk news from the last 24 hours, AI-curated by PiQ Markets

The United States and Iran are reportedly nearing an agreement to end their conflict, with terms including nuclear material removal, sanctions relief, and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. US President Donald Trump has signaled confidence in the negotiations, stating the war is ending, though Iran disputes the agreement's finalization and key objectives remain unfulfilled. This comes amid recent incidents, including US forces intercepting Iranian drones targeting commercial ships near the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran bolstering security around its enriched uranium stockpile. Israel has also indicated it would retaliate if Iran responds to future Israeli strikes in Lebanon.

The United States and Iran are reportedly nearing a memorandum of understanding to end the ongoing conflict, with Iran's Foreign Minister stating a deal is closer than ever. President Trump has expressed optimism about a potential resolution, reposting the Iranian minister's statement after initially dismissing related leaks. Despite these diplomatic overtures, regional tensions remain high, evidenced by continued fighting in Lebanon, Israeli displacement orders for over 20 towns, and US forces downing Iranian drones in the Strait of Hormuz.

An Israeli airstrike on a medical facility in Selaa, Lebanon, wounded two paramedics, an incident Doctors Without Borders called alarming due to a pattern of attacks on first responders. Meanwhile, Lebanese President Joseph Aoun described the nation at a "fateful choice" regarding state authority and militia influence, stressing national unity. In the West Bank, Israeli forces used tear gas and stun grenades near Bethlehem, impacting Palestinian visitors. The UN also reported heavy Israeli military activity near the Lebanon border, including armored movements and air operations.

A media investigation by Mediazona and BBC Russian has identified over 225,000 Russian soldiers killed in Ukraine, a figure likely to be an undercount. Western intelligence estimates nearly 500,000 Russian casualties. Meanwhile, Ukraine's Armed Forces have released their own updated estimates of Russia's combat losses as of June 13. Separately, a year-long report by the Journal details the transformations endured by Ukrainians in a front-line town as their daily lives were dismantled by the ongoing conflict.

Iran has denied U.S. President Donald Trump's claims of an Iranian drone attack on Indian ships, labeling them "baseless" and accusing the U.S. of attacking Indian seafarers. India's External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar protested "unjustified" U.S. Navy attacks off the coast of Oman that reportedly killed three Indian mariners, summoning the U.S. embassy's charge d'affaires twice. However, the General Secretary of the Forward Seamen's Union of India, Manoj Yadav, denied reports of any Indian sailors being killed on the MT Liaki Freedom vessel, with the Ministry of External Affairs confirming the crew is safe.

Turkey and Saudi Arabia are developing a new land trade corridor that will pass through Syria and Jordan, bypassing Israel. This initiative is seen by Israeli officials as a direct challenge to the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC), a project they support. Meanwhile, the White House and U.S. Central Command have refuted claims that the U.S. is building a $500 million military base near Gaza's border, asserting that no U.S. troops will be deployed into Gaza.

Brazil's national football team faces significant pressure as they prepare for their opening match in the 2026 World Cup against Morocco. Coach Carlo Ancelotti is tasked with leading the team to a record sixth World Cup title, a feat Brazil has not achieved since 2002. Goalkeeper Alisson Becker emphasized the immense expectations surrounding the team, comparing the coach's role to that of the nation's president.

Ukraine has conducted drone strikes in Russia's Bryansk region and at a port in Temryuk, resulting in at least one fatality and injuries. Regional authorities confirmed the incident in Bryansk, where one person was killed and others were wounded. In Temryuk, a drone attack ignited a fire at a sea terminal. Russia's Defense Ministry reported intercepting numerous Ukrainian drones overnight across several regions as part of ongoing hostilities.

Portugal's Cristiano Ronaldo, preparing for his sixth World Cup, stresses the importance of a strong start for his team. He advises focusing on immediate matches rather than solely on winning the title. Meanwhile, 48 national teams are setting up training bases across three host countries, intending to remain in their chosen locations throughout the tournament.

Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei declared victory over Israel and the United States following recent strikes, asserting that Israel was "crushed." Major General Ali Abdollahi echoed this sentiment, stating that Iran's deterrent capabilities and national strength were demonstrated. The claims suggest a perception of success by Iran in its recent military actions against Israel.

Iran's parliament speaker, Mohammad-Baqer Qalibaf, has issued a warning to the United States regarding a potential memorandum of understanding with Tehran. Qalibaf emphasized that any commitments made in such an agreement must be upheld. This statement underscores Iran's expectation of adherence to agreed-upon terms in international dealings.

A woman in her 30s is in critical condition following a shark attack at Coogee Beach in Sydney. The incident prompted the closure of multiple beaches along the city's eastern coast. Emergency services responded to the scene, and the woman was transported to the hospital. The attack has led to significant disruption and concern for beachgoers in the area.

Doctors Without Borders (MSF) faces scrutiny following an internal report detailing 59 allegations of abuse and exploitation by its staff in Chad. The report highlights disturbing cases, including those involving underage girls and the exchange of aid for sexual favors. These revelations suggest a broader problem than previously acknowledged, despite MSF's existing measures to combat such misconduct. The organization is now under pressure to address these findings and strengthen its safeguarding protocols.

India and France are deepening their defense cooperation, with a specific focus on enhancing undersea capabilities. Prime Minister Narendra Modi's upcoming visit to France will include discussions with President Emmanuel Macron aimed at strengthening their strategic partnership and fostering innovation in defense. This move comes amid rising maritime contestation in the Indo-Pacific region, signaling a joint effort to bolster security and presence in the waters.

Ukraine conducted a significant overnight drone and missile assault on Russian-occupied Crimea, targeting bridges and military installations. Russian officials stated that air defenses intercepted the majority of the incoming projectiles. However, some damage to infrastructure was reported, indicating partial success for the Ukrainian operation. The full extent of the damage and the specific targets hit remain under assessment.

An investigation revealed that almost 20% of food imports into the European Union labeled as "Made in Israel" actually originate from settlements in the occupied West Bank or Golan Heights. These goods gain preferential tariff treatment and organic certifications meant for products from within Israel. This practice misleads consumers and may contravene EU regulations.

Four of six bodies recovered in Manipur have been identified as Liangmai Nagas, who were believed to have been killed while in captivity. The National Investigation Agency (NIA) is investigating the incident, which follows a period of significant ethnic violence in the region. The identification of the bodies marks a grim development in the ongoing crisis, with authorities working to determine the circumstances surrounding their deaths and bring those responsible to justice.

India has successfully conducted three consecutive flight tests of its advanced ballistic missile defence systems, demonstrating a multi-layered capability against long-range threats. The tests also validated the system's effectiveness in defending against medium-range anti-ship missiles. This successful demonstration highlights India's growing prowess in missile defence technology and its ability to counter diverse aerial and naval threats.

The U.S. military has downed multiple Iranian attack drones during ongoing peace deal negotiations. The incident occurred amidst diplomatic efforts aimed at resolving existing conflicts. Details on the specific number of drones or the exact location of the engagement were not immediately available, but the event highlights the volatile security situation even as diplomatic channels are active.

An Indian Air Force AN-32 transport aircraft crashed while attempting to land at the Jorhat Air Force Station in Assam. The pilot is feared dead, and firefighting teams were deployed to the scene. This incident marks another aviation accident involving the IAF in Assam this year, following a previous crash.