Key facts
- China's imports of major feed grains, including wheat and corn, have declined significantly.
- Domestic wheat production has risen by approximately 60% over the past two decades.
- Corn output in China has nearly tripled since the start of the 21st century, reaching a record 301 million tons in 2025.
- Weaker feed demand, particularly in the pig sector, is contributing to lower import needs.
- Soybean imports remain structurally strong despite the overall decline in feed grain imports.
China's role as a dominant force in global agricultural markets, particularly for grains and oilseeds, is evolving. While historically a major importer, recent shifts indicate a notable slowdown in feed grain purchases, prompting questions about the permanence of this trend.
The decline in imports of wheat, corn, barley, and sorghum has been significant, with volumes falling back within tariff rate quotas after several years of exceeding them. Wheat imports dropped to approximately 3.9 million tons and corn imports to about 2.6 million tons in 2025, a sharp decrease from over 11 million and 30 million tons, respectively, in the previous year. Barley and sorghum imports also weakened, partly due to increased domestic corn use and tariffs on U.S. agricultural products.
This transformation in import needs is largely driven by China's expanding domestic agricultural output. Over the past two decades, wheat production has surged by about 60%, and corn output has nearly tripled, reaching a record 301 million tons in 2025. Soybean production also saw an increase, nearing 21 million tons. These gains are supported by government policies focused on food security, including subsidies, minimum support prices, and reserve programs. The accelerated adoption of genetically modified corn varieties is also projected to further boost output.
Lower domestic prices, a consequence of record supplies, have reduced the appeal of imported grains. Corn prices have fallen below 2,100 yuan/t, and wheat prices remain low. Demand-side factors, particularly in the animal feed sector, also play a crucial role. The pig sector has experienced shrinking margins since early 2023, leading to reduced inventories and softer feed demand. Authorities have implemented measures to manage breeding capacity and slaughter weights to stabilize pork prices.