Key facts
- Government analysis suggests a third Heathrow runway may yield 90% less GDP boost than original estimates.
- New estimates project a maximum GDP boost of 0.05% from a third Heathrow runway.
- The project's net present value is calculated to be between -£23.4bn and -£62.5bn.
- Social and environmental impacts are considered to outweigh passenger and economic benefits.
- Previous estimates had projected a higher economic return for the Heathrow expansion.
- The updated analysis incorporates factors like carbon emissions, noise pollution, and community disruption.
Government analysis suggests that a proposed third runway at Heathrow Airport could deliver substantially lower economic benefits than originally anticipated. The latest projections indicate that the expansion might boost the UK's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by a maximum of 0.05%, representing a 90% reduction compared to earlier estimates. This revised outlook stems from a comprehensive assessment that considers a wider range of economic, social, and environmental factors.
The analysis further reveals that the net present value (NPV) of the third runway project is estimated to fall within a range of -£23.4 billion to -£62.5 billion. This negative valuation suggests that the projected costs, particularly those associated with social and environmental impacts, are likely to exceed the anticipated passenger and economic benefits. The findings imply a re-evaluation of the project's viability and its contribution to national economic growth.