Key facts
- Government analysis suggests a third Heathrow runway could boost GDP by only up to 0.05%, a 90% reduction from previous estimates.
- The net present value of the scheme is calculated to be between -£23.4bn and -£62.5bn.
- Positive benefits to passengers and wider economy are estimated between £29bn-£42.4bn.
- Social and environmental impacts are expected to outweigh the positive benefits.
- A health impact assessment indicated potential harm to up to 3 million people living near Heathrow.
Government analysis indicates that the economic boost from a proposed third runway at Heathrow Airport could be significantly less than previously estimated, potentially yielding only up to 0.05% to GDP, a 90% reduction from earlier figures. The Department for Transport's assessment calculates the project's net present value to be between -£23.4bn and -£62.5bn, suggesting that the social and environmental costs outweigh the projected benefits for passengers and the wider economy.
Despite these findings, Chancellor Rachel Reeves has advocated for the expansion, emphasizing economic growth as a top priority. Heathrow Airport and a government spokesperson have stated that the new figures do not capture all economic benefits, such as job creation and strengthened connectivity. However, critics like Alex Chapman from the New Economics Foundation argue that the government's own analysis undermines the economic case for expansion.
The DfT's appraisal model reportedly excludes certain economic benefits, such as the value of UK trade, which Heathrow claims would be enhanced by a larger airport. The documents were released as the government moves forward with the approval process for the third runway, which includes a consultation and an eventual vote by MPs. The project involves significant infrastructure changes, including diverting the M25 motorway and demolishing homes, and is estimated to cost tens of billions of pounds. Separately, a health impact assessment warned of potential harm to millions living near the airport, alongside concerns about access to housing, education, healthcare, and environmental quality.