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Florida, Alaska primaries offer early clues to battle for control of Congress

Created at 18 Aug · 10:07 AM2 sources↑ Market-relevant2 events
IN SHORT

Voters in Florida and Alaska are participating in primary elections that could indicate which party will control the House of Representatives and Senate in November. Florida's redistricting is expected to favor Republicans, while Alaska's Senate race could be a competitive preview.

Key Numbers

24expected Republican House seats in Florida
4expected Democratic House seats in Florida
13percentage points Trump won Florida by in 2024
20thFlorida congressional district
2004year Debbie Wasserman Schultz was first elected to Congress
25thFlorida congressional district
2029term end date for U.S. Senate seat

Who's Involved

Mary Peltola
Democratic challenger for Alaska Senate seat
Dan S. Sullivan
Incumbent Republican Senator in Alaska
Debbie Wasserman Schultz
Representative running in a redrawn Florida district
Jared Moskowitz
Representative running in a new Florida seat
Oliver Larkin
Political activist running for Democratic nomination in Florida's 25th Congressional District
Donald Trump
Republican President endorsing Byron Donalds for Florida governor
Byron Donalds
Republican Representative endorsed for Florida governor
Ashley Moody
Republican expected to win U.S. Senate nomination
Alex Vindman
Former U.S. Army officer favored for Democratic Senate nomination
Dan J. Sullivan
Republican candidate with the same name on Alaska Senate ballot
Nick Begich III
Incumbent Republican Representative in Alaska
Florida, Alaska primaries offer early clues to battle for control of Congress

↳ Why This Matters

These primary elections are crucial as they will determine the candidates who will compete in the November general elections, potentially shaping the balance of power in both the House of Representatives and the Senate.

Key facts

  • Voters in Florida and Alaska are participating in primary elections that could influence control of Congress.
  • Florida's new congressional map, approved by the Republican-controlled legislature, is expected to increase Republican representation.
  • Democratic Representative Debbie Wasserman Schultz is running in a redrawn district in Florida.
  • Alaska's Senate primary is a nonpartisan contest where incumbent Republican Dan S. Sullivan and Democratic challenger Mary Peltola are on the same ballot.
  • Mary Peltola is leading Senator Dan S. Sullivan in some opinion polls in Alaska.
  • Donald Trump is endorsing Byron Donalds for Florida governor.

Voters in Florida and Alaska are participating in primary elections on Tuesday that are expected to offer insights into the upcoming November midterm elections, particularly concerning control of the House of Representatives and the Senate.

In Florida, a new congressional map, pushed through by the Republican-controlled legislature, is anticipated to increase the Republican majority. This map could result in a delegation of 24 Republicans and only four Democrats from the state. Several incumbent Democrats, including Representative Debbie Wasserman Schultz and Representative Jared Moskowitz, are running in newly drawn districts.

Wasserman Schultz is competing for a new seat in Florida's 20th congressional district, facing criticism from some activists. She is running against candidates including rapper Luther "Uncle Luke" Campbell and former Representative Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick, who faces criminal charges. Moskowitz is also running in a new seat, with Oliver Larkin, endorsed by the Democratic Socialists of America, seeking the party's nomination in the 25th district.

Florida voters will also select candidates for governor and U.S. Senate. Republican Representative Byron Donalds is considered a frontrunner for the gubernatorial nomination, while Republican-turned-Democrat David Jolly is likely to win the Democratic nomination for governor. Republican Ashley Moody is expected to secure the nomination for the U.S. Senate seat, and former U.S. Army officer Alex Vindman is favored to win the Democratic nomination for the Senate.

Alaska's Senate primary is notable as an unusual nonpartisan contest where incumbent Republican Senator Dan S. Sullivan and Democratic challenger Mary Peltola will appear on the same ballot. Analysts view Alaska as a potential opportunity for Democrats to gain a Senate seat. Some polls indicate Peltola is leading Sullivan. Senator Sullivan also faces a challenge from another Republican candidate with the same name.

In Alaska's House of Representatives race, incumbent Republican Representative Nick Begich III is facing competition. The state's ranked-choice voting system could also influence outcomes.

Frequently asked questions

Florida's new congressional map, drawn by Republicans, is expected to significantly increase the state's Republican representation in the House of Representatives, potentially aiding the party's efforts to maintain control.

Alaska's Senate primary is a nonpartisan contest where all candidates, regardless of party, appear on the same ballot, and the top four vote-getters advance to the general election.

Representatives Debbie Wasserman Schultz and Jared Moskowitz are running in newly drawn districts that may present challenges to their re-election bids.

What Happens Next

01Results of the Florida and Alaska primaries will be announced.
02Candidates will be finalized for the November general elections.

How It Developed

Voters in Alaska, Florida, and California are heading to the polls for primary elections.
Alaska's Senate primary features incumbent Republican Dan S. Sullivan and Democratic challenger Mary Peltola on the same nonpartisan ballot.
Florida's primary election is expected to bolster Republican chances of maintaining House control due to a new district map.
Representative Debbie Wasserman Schultz is running in a newly drawn Florida district.
Representative Jared Moskowitz is also running in a new Florida seat.
Republican Representative Byron Donalds is considered a frontrunner for Florida governor.
Republican Ashley Moody is expected to win her party's nomination for the U.S. Senate.
Former U.S. Army officer Alex Vindman is favored to win the Democratic nomination for the U.S. Senate.

Sources

T1
What to watch for in Tuesday's voting in Florida, Alaska, CaliforniaReuters

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