Key facts
- President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva holds a narrow lead over Senator Flavio Bolsonaro in upcoming Brazilian elections.
- Polls show Lula leading Bolsonaro in both first-round and potential runoff scenarios.
- The gap between the two candidates has narrowed in recent polls.
- Flavio Bolsonaro is the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, who is ineligible to run.
- Lula has framed his campaign around national sovereignty and protecting Brazil's resources.
Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva is holding a narrow lead over Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, his main right-wing challenger, in the lead-up to the country's October presidential election. Recent polls from BTG Pactual/Nexus and Quaest show Lula ahead in both first-round and simulated runoff scenarios, though the margins are tight and within the polls' margin of error, indicating a competitive race.
In a simulated second-round runoff, the BTG Pactual/Nexus poll indicated Lula would receive 47% of voter support compared to 44% for Bolsonaro, unchanged from the previous week. In a first-round scenario, Lula led with 41% of the votes, up one percentage point, while Bolsonaro garnered 36%, also up one point.
A separate Quaest poll, commissioned by media group Globo, showed Lula with 43% against Bolsonaro's 40% in a simulated runoff, a statistical tie given the two-point margin of error. In a first-round scenario, this poll placed Lula at 38% and Bolsonaro at 31%, with other candidates trailing significantly.
Flavio Bolsonaro, the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, has become the standard-bearer for Brazil's political right after his father was declared ineligible to run due to abuses of political power and a conviction related to an alleged plot to overturn his 2022 election loss to Lula.
Lula formally launched his re-election campaign on August 2, framing the contest around national sovereignty and the protection of Brazil's natural resources, including rare earths and critical minerals, from foreign control. He has warned against foreign interference in the election, including from U.S. President Donald Trump.