Key facts
- Likud party primaries to select candidates for October elections are scheduled for Monday.
- Analysts warn that a surge of hard-right candidates could jeopardize Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's re-election prospects.
- Recent polls suggest a significant portion of Likud voters desire a more centrist government.
- Netanyahu is reportedly working to include more moderate candidates on the party's list.
- Disagreements exist within the party regarding military service exemptions for ultra-Orthodox members.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud party is holding internal primaries on Monday to select candidates for the upcoming October elections. Analysts suggest that a strong showing by populist, hard-right contenders in these primaries could undermine Netanyahu's chances of winning re-election.
Recent polling indicates a significant shift in voter sentiment, with a majority of Likud voters expressing a desire for a more centrist government compared to the current coalition, which includes ultra-Orthodox Jewish and ultranationalist parties. However, a survey from Agam Labs revealed that only about a third of Likud party members who will cast votes in the primaries favor a center-right government, while two-thirds prefer a coalition similar to the outgoing one.
Netanyahu has reportedly been working to recruit more moderate candidates to counterbalance the influence of populists gaining momentum in the primaries. Despite these efforts, some within the party express skepticism about their success. The current government's coalition partners, such as Itamar Ben-Gvir's Jewish Power and Bezalel Smotrich's Religious Zionism, have advocated for controversial policies regarding Gaza.
The primaries are taking place at a time when Likud's overall popularity has reportedly fallen, with projections suggesting the party could lose a substantial number of seats. A key divisive issue highlighted in the Agam Labs data is the exemption of ultra-Orthodox members from military service, a point of contention among Likud voters, particularly during the ongoing conflict in Gaza. With approximately 20% of the electorate remaining undecided, these internal party divisions and specific policy debates could prove pivotal in the upcoming elections.