Key facts
- Betting on the U.S. midterm elections has reached $133 million.
- This figure exceeds the $92.4 million wagered on the 2024 congressional election cycle.
- The Anti-Corruption Data Collective (ACDC) analyzed data through August 10.
- Major prediction market platforms have opened 16 times more markets for the midterms than for 2024.
- The top 1% of digital wallets on Polymarket Global represent 68% of trading volume for 2026 congressional markets.
Betting on the upcoming U.S. midterm elections has already reached $133 million, surpassing the $92.4 million wagered during the 2024 congressional election cycle, according to data from the Anti-Corruption Data Collective (ACDC).
The non-profit research group forecasts that total wagers on the 2026 midterms could reach $1.6 billion if current betting activity accelerates at the same pace as it did in 2024. This surge highlights the rapid growth of prediction markets, with platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi attracting users by allowing bets on various real-world outcomes.
ACDC examined 7,466 markets related to the U.S. House and Senate races across three platforms, finding that major platforms have opened 16 times as many markets for the midterms compared to 2024. Michelle Kendler-Kretsch, a research fellow at ACDC, stated that coverage has exploded, with multiple markets now open for nearly every seat in the country.
However, this growth has drawn increasing regulatory scrutiny, with critics arguing that these platforms constitute gambling. Prediction market companies and the Trump administration contend they are financial markets, not gambling platforms, and that their contracts allow users to hedge against risks or trade on their views of future events. In 2024, Kalshi won a legal challenge against the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, clearing the way for Americans to use derivatives to bet on election outcomes.
Concerns about insider trading and the potential for prediction market odds to undermine election trust have also been raised. David Szakonyi, co-founder and director at ACDC, noted that markets on outcomes like endorsements and speeches open the door to insider trading. Data from ACDC also showed that the top 1% of digital wallets on Polymarket Global account for 68% of all trading volumes on 2026 congressional markets.