Lula Leads Bolsonaro in Brazilian Presidential Election Polls

Key facts

• President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leads Senator Flávio Bolsonaro in Brazilian presidential election polls.
• Datafolha poll shows Lula with 41% in the first round and 47% in a potential second-round runoff.
• Genial/Quaest poll shows Lula leading Bolsonaro 44% to 38% in a runoff scenario.
• Flávio Bolsonaro's support has declined amid reports of seeking film financing and U.S. government actions against criminal organizations.

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has maintained his lead over opposition Senator Flávio Bolsonaro in the race for Brazil's October presidential election, according to recent polls. A Datafolha survey showed Lula would win a potential second-round runoff against Bolsonaro by 47% to 43%, mirroring last month's results. In the most likely first-round scenario, Lula polled at 41% compared to 31% for Bolsonaro. The Datafolha poll suggests Bolsonaro may have mitigated electoral damage from revelations that he asked a jailed banker to finance a film about his father, former President Jair Bolsonaro. Bolsonaro stated no favors were exchanged in connection with the film's financing. Separately, a Genial/Quaest poll released earlier in the week indicated Lula has opened a six-percentage-point lead over Flávio Bolsonaro in a runoff scenario, with Lula receiving 44% of voting intentions compared to 38% for Bolsonaro. This poll noted Lula's support increased from 42% to 44% since May, while Flávio Bolsonaro's fell from 41% to 38%, marking the first time since March that the two are not statistically tied. The Genial/Quaest survey also found that 65% of respondents believe Flávio Bolsonaro was wrong to seek financing for the film "Dark Horse" and 58% believe he may be concealing involvement in the Banco Master case. Additionally, 47% of respondents believe Flávio Bolsonaro influenced the U.S. government's decision to classify certain criminal organizations as terrorist groups.