19 for 19: The Most Consistent Six-Month Stretch in Market History

A striking seasonal stat Chris Vecchio walks through: since 1950, the S&P 500 has gained ground in every six-month window from November through April following a midterm year. That's 19 observations and 19 positive returns, an average gain of 14.79%. The month-by-month shape is the useful part: November is strong, December is weak, and January has been the standout, averaging 4.23% and positive in 17 of 19. His honest caveat: a 100% hit rate on 19 observations is interesting but short of statistical significance. 📊 tastylive: https://www.tastylive.com/ 📰 Get Tom's pre-market analysis every morning: https://www.tastylive.com/newsletters 📘 FREE Options Strategy Guide: https://tinyurl.com/bp9ms763 📱 Follow tastylive on X: https://x.com/tastyliveshow Chapters 00:00 Continuing down the seasonality path 00:30 The chart making the rounds 01:10 19 observations, 19 positive returns 02:00 The strongest and weakest examples 02:40 Why the interpretation matters 03:20 The sample-size caveat 04:00 How the returns actually develop 04:40 January, the standout month 05:30 Positive in 17 and 18 of 19 06:20 Why the pattern may exist at all #tastylive #tradeoftheday #chrisvecchio #seasonality #sp500 #marketstats #historicaldata #backtest #optionstrading #stockmarket tastylive is a real financial network, producing hours of live programming every day. Follow along as our experts navigate the markets, provide actionable trading insights, and teach you how to trade. With over 120 original segments, and over 25 personalities, we'll help you take your trading to the next level, whether you are new to trading or a seasoned veteran. tastylive content is created, produced, and provided solely by tastylive, Inc. ("tastylive") and is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not, nor is it intended to be, trading or investment advice or a recommendation that any security, futures contract, digital asset, other product, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any person. Trading securities, futures products, and digital assets involve risk and may result in a loss greater than the original amount invested. Investment information provided may not be appropriate for all investors and is provided without respect to individual investor financial sophistication, financial situation, investing time horizon or risk tolerance. Options, futures, and futures options are not suitable for all investors. Prior to trading securities, options, futures, or futures options, please read all applicable risk disclosures, including, but not limited to, the Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options Disclosure and the Futures and Exchange Traded Options Risk Disclosure Statement found at https://tastytrade.com/disclosures/. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance is not presented net of all commissions, fees, and expenses. Multi-leg option strategies incur higher transaction costs than single leg trades as they involve multiple commission charges. Examples provided are for illustrative, informational, and educational purposes only and are not intended to be reflective of results you can expect to achieve. Supporting documentation for any claims, including claims made on behalf of options programs), comparisons, statistics, or other technical data, if applicable, will be supplied upon request. tastylive, through its content, financial programming or otherwise, does not provide investment or financial advice or make investment recommendations. tastylive is not a licensed financial adviser, registered investment adviser, or a registered broker-dealer.