Julia Spina Says You’re Selling Way Too Wide, and the Data Proves It

A research piece worth internalizing if you sell range. Across futures, markets typically use only 50 to 60% of their expected move, so the net is cast far wider than what gets realized. Containment ran 71 to 82% for most futures, with Bitcoin futures staying inside about 91% of the time. The exception is metals: gold and silver breach to the upside far more often, and catching 90% of their moves takes 1.7 to 1.8 times the expected move versus just 1.3 for the S&P. 📊 tastylive: https://www.tastylive.com/ 📰 Get Tom's pre-market analysis every morning: https://www.tastylive.com/newsletters 📘 FREE Options Strategy Guide: https://tinyurl.com/bp9ms763 📱 Follow tastylive on X: https://x.com/tastyliveshow Chapters 00:00 How expected move is calculated 00:51 The range is usually bigger than realized 01:15 Containment across futures 01:46 Why Bitcoin stays inside 91% of the time 03:21 One day versus five days 05:01 Markets only use half the range 06:11 Why the approximation matters 07:16 Balanced breaches, except metals 08:52 What it takes to capture the tails 11:59 The takeaways by asset class #tastylive #marketmeasures #juliaspina #expectedmove #impliedvolatility #futures #bitcoin #gold #optionstrading #stockmarket tastylive is a real financial network, producing hours of live programming every day. Follow along as our experts navigate the markets, provide actionable trading insights, and teach you how to trade. With over 120 original segments, and over 25 personalities, we'll help you take your trading to the next level, whether you are new to trading or a seasoned veteran. tastylive content is created, produced, and provided solely by tastylive, Inc. ("tastylive") and is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not, nor is it intended to be, trading or investment advice or a recommendation that any security, futures contract, digital asset, other product, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any person. Trading securities, futures products, and digital assets involve risk and may result in a loss greater than the original amount invested. Investment information provided may not be appropriate for all investors and is provided without respect to individual investor financial sophistication, financial situation, investing time horizon or risk tolerance. Options, futures, and futures options are not suitable for all investors. Prior to trading securities, options, futures, or futures options, please read all applicable risk disclosures, including, but not limited to, the Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options Disclosure and the Futures and Exchange Traded Options Risk Disclosure Statement found at https://tastytrade.com/disclosures/. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance is not presented net of all commissions, fees, and expenses. Multi-leg option strategies incur higher transaction costs than single leg trades as they involve multiple commission charges. Examples provided are for illustrative, informational, and educational purposes only and are not intended to be reflective of results you can expect to achieve. Supporting documentation for any claims, including claims made on behalf of options programs), comparisons, statistics, or other technical data, if applicable, will be supplied upon request. tastylive, through its content, financial programming or otherwise, does not provide investment or financial advice or make investment recommendations. tastylive is not a licensed financial adviser, registered investment adviser, or a registered broker-dealer.