The Dollar Is Rallying on Hikes the Fed Has Not Promised

The U.S. dollar rally is running on rate hike expectations the Federal Reserve has not confirmed, with futures pricing more than guidance implies. Matt Simpson, StoneX Media Market Analyst, covers what the Federal Reserve's first hike in three years has done to dollar pricing and the major currency pairs. Fed Funds futures moved from around 32 basis points of expected tightening to roughly 101 basis points by July in only 20 days. Seasonality since the year 2000 gives the U.S. dollar a slim September win rate, while December carries the weakest win rate and the most negative returns. Crude oil underpins the inflation expectations behind that pricing. Discover Actionable Insights with the latest Market Outlook Reports: https://intel.stonex.com/offer?language=en&campaignId=A908C315-DC62-4F35-AC16-870BB71E84D1&utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=sxtv_guest_matt_simpson&utm_content=share 00:00 - Dollar Rallies on Fed Hike 00:58 - Markets Price One More Hike 01:58 - Seasonals Favor September Only 02:51 - Dollar Chart Looks Stretched 03:58 - Crude Rally Is Running Thin 06:24 - Pound Loses Its Hawkish Story Like and subscribe for more financial market insights. #Forex #StoneX #MattSimpson #FederalReserve --------- Like this video? Subscribe and turn on notifications so you don't miss any videos from StoneX: https://www.youtube.com/@stonex_official Visit https://www.stonex.com/en/insights/thought-leadership/?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=social for insights, perspectives and thought leadership from StoneX's global network of experts. Visit our website: https://www.stonex.com?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=social