Key facts
- Over half of UK voters predict tax increases under a potential Andy Burnham government.
- 55% of voters expect taxes to rise, while only 9% believe they will fall.
- Chancellor Rachel Reeves has already raised approximately £65bn in taxes.
- A £25bn hike in employers' national insurance contributions is linked to rising unemployment.
- A majority of voters support increasing charges on wealth to fund public services.
Voters anticipate that taxes will rise significantly under a potential government led by Andy Burnham, with over half expecting an increase regardless of who holds the position of Chancellor. This prediction comes despite Chancellor Rachel Reeves having already implemented substantial tax increases totaling approximately £65bn over her two years in office, largely to fund public services and increased wages for public sector workers. A notable tax hike of £25bn to employers' national insurance contributions has been cited as a contributing factor to the rise in the unemployment rate from 4.4% to over 5%.
The sentiment that taxes will increase is shared across voters from most major political parties, including Labour, Reform, Conservative, and Liberal Democrat supporters. While Burnham has committed to the Labour manifesto's pledge not to raise income tax, VAT, or national insurance, discussions around other measures persist. Senior Labour figures, such as Wes Streeting, have advocated for aligning capital gains taxes with income taxes. Additionally, rumours suggest reforms to property levies and wealth taxes are under consideration.
Despite a lack of detailed implementation plans, a majority of voters (51%) expressed support for increasing charges on wealth, such as assets or property, to fund public services. However, economists from the Institute for Fiscal Studies and experts like Dan Neidle have cautioned that a direct levy on asset holdings might yield minimal tax receipts and negatively impact economic growth. Andy Haldane, an adviser to Burnham and former Bank of England economist, has also warned against using tax reform as a primary means to increase revenue.
Furthermore, most voters desire Burnham to adhere to fiscal rules and proceed with a significant council housebuilding program. Support is lower for cutting the welfare budget to fund defence spending, an idea proposed by Tory leader Kemi Badenoch, and for establishing a 'Number 10 in the North'. Conversely, there is widespread backing for devolving substantial powers and funding from Westminster to regional and local governments. Burnham's team has stated they will not comment on tax speculation.