Key facts
- Vietnam's per capita GDP is projected to exceed Indonesia's in 2026.
- Vietnam's GDP per capita is forecast to be $18,870 in 2026.
- The Vietnamese government aims for 10% GDP growth in 2026.
Vietnam's per capita gross domestic product is expected to surpass that of Indonesia in 2026, as the country increasingly becomes an alternative to China for high-tech manufacturing, including semiconductors and electronics. The Vietnamese government's massive public investments are also a factor behind the country's growth. The Ministry of Finance has drafted a socio-economic development plan for 2026, setting the gross domestic product (GDP) growth target at 10 percent. The ministry said the Vietnamese economy is on track to basically fulfil the overall goals set for 2025, with all 15 key indicators expected to be achieved. GDP growth is projected to reach at least 8 percent in 2025, with per capita income rising to USD 5,000 and inflation staying at around 4 percent, providing the launchpad for double-digit growth in 2026. According to the first draft of the 2026 socio-economic development plan, GDP per capita is projected at USD 5,000, inflation at around 5 percent, and poverty reduction of 1-1.5 percent. The ministry’s draft plan is in line with Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh’s directive earlier this year, which set 2026 as the first year the economy would embark on the double-digit growth journey. However, the double-digit growth target is far more ambitious than forecasts by international institutions, as the Vietnamese economy continues to face challenges from increasing global uncertainties. Singapore–based United Overseas Bank (UOB) has maintained its forecast of 7 percent for Vietnam in 2026, though it raised its 2025 forecast from 6.9 percent to 7.5 percent. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently projected Vietnam’s growth to slow to 6.5 percent in 2025 and decelerate further in 2026, citing the full-year effect of the new US tariffs announced in July and the unwinding of most of the one-off 2025 government stimulus. The World Bank, in its report in September, forecast Vietnam's economy to grow 6.6 percent in 2025, ease to 6.1 percent in 2026, and then rebound to 6.5 percent in 2027.