Key facts
- The USDA has projected U.S. winter wheat production for the 2026/27 season at 1.030 billion bushels.
- This projection represents the lowest winter wheat production since 1965.
- Hard red winter wheat production is expected to fall to 497 million bushels, the lowest since 1957.
- 46% of the nation's winter wheat crop is rated poor or very poor, the worst condition since 2006.
- Approximately 36% of wheat fields are predicted to be unharvested due to drought and abandonment.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture has projected the 2026/27 winter wheat crop at 1.030 billion bushels, marking the lowest production since 1965 due to severe drought conditions across key Plains states. Hard red winter wheat output is expected to reach its lowest point since 1957.
According to the latest USDA data, the nation's winter wheat crop is in its worst condition since 2006, with 46% rated poor or very poor. Nebraska's crop is particularly hard-hit, with 82% in poor or very poor condition. This severe drought is forcing farmers to abandon significant portions of their fields, with the USDA predicting nearly 36% of wheat fields will not be harvested this year. Nationwide, wheat field abandonment is averaging around 32%, the fourth-highest rate since 1917.
Farmers are facing increased pressure from rising fuel and fertilizer prices, exacerbated by disruptions from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and trade disputes stemming from U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff battles. In Kansas, one farmer reported abandoning over 200 acres due to low yield expectations.