Key facts
- The Purdue University-CME Group Ag Economy Barometer fell to 113 points in June.
- High input costs were identified as the primary concern by 47% of farmers.
- Per-acre production costs for nine principal row crops are projected to rise in 2026.
- Federal assistance programs provide partial loss coverage but do not restore profitability for many farmers.
- Many farms are expected to incur losses for the fourth or fifth consecutive year.
Farmer sentiment in the U.S. has declined, with high input costs identified as the primary concern limiting financial improvements. The Purdue University-CME Group Ag Economy Barometer fell to 113 points in June, its lowest level since January, as both current conditions and future expectations indices decreased. Nearly half of surveyed farmers cited elevated input costs as their biggest worry, with 42% indicating these costs are negatively impacting their financial position.
Per-acre production costs for the nine principal row crops are projected to rise again in 2026, continuing a trend that began after 2021. Operating expenses, including interest, fertilizer, fuel, labor, chemicals, and maintenance, have significantly increased since 2020. These inflated costs are driving higher breakeven prices for farmers. Despite federal assistance programs like the Farmer Bridge Assistance (FBA) Program and the Emergency Commodity Assistance Program (ECAP), these payments generally cover only a portion of losses, leaving many farmers potentially operating below breakeven for a fourth or fifth consecutive year.
The survey also revealed insights into farmers' views on artificial intelligence and trade. While 23% saw increased production as the main benefit of AI tools, 52% saw no meaningful benefit. A majority found AI recommendations sometimes or often difficult to follow. Regarding trade, 43% of respondents expected agricultural exports to increase over the next five years, and nearly 85% agreed that free trade benefits agriculture and other American industries.
Farmland value expectations saw a slight decrease in the short-term index, while the long-term index tied its record high. Net farm income, inflation, and alternative investments were cited as key influences on farmland values.