Key facts
- North Korea demands a shift in U.S. policy, including its approach to denuclearization.
- Experts assess the likelihood of a Trump-Kim summit at less than 50 percent.
- One expert put the chances of a summit at the APEC summit below 10 percent.
U.S. experts believe a summit between President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un is unlikely in the near future due to Pyongyang's demands for a policy shift from Washington, including its approach to denuclearization. Jenny Town, a senior fellow at the Stimson Center, stated that North Korea rejects any denuclearization agenda and the prospects of a meeting are less than 50 percent. Ankit Panda, a nuclear policy expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, offered a more pessimistic view, putting the chances of a summit on the sidelines of the upcoming APEC summit at below 10 percent. He suggested that Trump might be distracted by midterm elections and that Pyongyang seeks a clear public signal of policy change. However, Panda noted that a summit could still occur before Trump leaves office.