Key facts
- Tactical voting by Green and Liberal Democrat supporters is crucial for Andy Burnham's Labour victory in Makerfield.
- Restore Britain is Reform UK's main competitor on the right, with similar projected vote shares.
- Over half of Green or Lib Dem voters plan to vote for Burnham, while only about a third of Restore voters are willing to switch.
- Misinformation has increased four-fold on local Facebook groups during the campaign.
- Andy Burnham's national favourability has declined, though he remains popular among Labour supporters.
Tactical voting by Green and Liberal Democrat supporters is poised to be a decisive factor in the Makerfield byelection, potentially securing a victory for Labour's Andy Burnham by preventing Reform UK from gaining ground. Polling data indicates that while left-leaning voters are prepared to lend their support to Burnham, voters for Reform's right-wing competitor, Rupert Lowe's Restore Britain party, are less inclined to switch their allegiance.
Recent polling by Opinium reveals that over half of those intending to vote Green or Liberal Democrat in a general election would back Burnham in the byelection. This contrasts with Restore Britain voters, where only about a third expressed willingness to switch their vote. The combined vote share of the Liberal Democrats (7%) and Greens (4.5%) in the last general election significantly exceeds Burnham's narrow poll lead, highlighting the potential impact of tactical voting.
Experts like Professor Rob Ford of the University of Manchester emphasize the stark tactical logic in Makerfield, where other parties are out of contention, making it clear that supporting Burnham is the most effective way to prevent a Reform UK win. He notes Burnham's popularity in Manchester as an advantage, though the race is not yet decided. Ford also observes that Reform's campaign strategy appears to be the opposite of tactical voting, focusing on mobilizing far-right voters who may be discontented with Reform itself.
Tom de Grunwald, founder of Forward Democracy, which runs a tactical voting website, stated that their research confirms the effectiveness of tactical voting in Makerfield, with progressive voters already lending their votes to Burnham to prevent a split vote from benefiting Reform UK. This situation differs from the Gorton and Denton byelection, where both Labour and Greens aimed to stop Reform, and the Greens ultimately won comfortably.
Separately, research from the Social Market Foundation found a four-fold increase in misinformation on local Facebook posts during the campaign, including AI-generated images. While Burnham remains popular in Greater Manchester, his national favourability has declined. James Crouch of Opinium noted that Labour's five-point lead is smaller than Restore Britain's current vote share, suggesting a divided anti-Labour vote could lead to victory for Reform this time, potentially leaving Burnham vulnerable in future general elections.
Political commentator Peter Kellner views the Makerfield situation as a significant indicator for the next general election, suggesting a future where elections involve separate contests within the left and right blocs, with Makerfield serving as a preliminary test of which side is more successful at consolidating its vote.