Key facts
- The era of split-ticket voting is virtually over, with most voters now backing candidates from the same party for president and Congress.
- In 2020, 90% of voters chose congressional candidates aligned with their presidential pick, according to American National Election Studies.
- The Pew Research Center found that in the 2022 elections, only 6% of voters switched party allegiance between presidential and congressional races.
- In 1976, more than one-quarter of voters split their ticket between president and Congress.
- In 2024, four Democratic Senate candidates won in states that voted for Donald Trump, though some analyses suggest this was not entirely due to ticket-splitting.
- The decline in split-ticket voting is attributed to parties becoming more ideologically uniform and increased negative partisanship.
The decline of split-ticket voting, where voters cast ballots for candidates of different parties for president and Congress, is a significant shift in American politics that could impact the upcoming elections, particularly for Republicans. Historically, voters were more likely to choose candidates based on individual merit rather than strict party affiliation.
In 2020, a substantial 90% of voters supported congressional candidates from the same party as their presidential choice, according to the American National Election Studies. This trend continued in the 2022 midterms, with the Pew Research Center finding only 6% of voters switching party allegiances between presidential and congressional races. Recent polling from The New York Times in four battleground states shows that about 10% of Trump voters back Democratic Senate candidates, while about 5% of Biden supporters back Republican candidates.
This partisan rigidity is a relatively recent phenomenon. In 1976, over a quarter of voters split their tickets. The numbers were similar in 1988, a year when Democratic Senator Lloyd Bentsen famously ran nearly 800,000 votes ahead of his vice-presidential running mate, Michael Dukakis. The shift towards straight-ticket voting is partly attributed to the increasing ideological uniformity within the two major parties and a rise in negative partisanship, where voters are more motivated by opposition to the other party than by affection for their own.
While some incumbents like Democratic Senators Jon Tester and Sherrod Brown, and Republican Larry Hogan, may still be able to win by defying party trends, it is becoming increasingly difficult. The diminishing power of TV advertising also plays a role, making it harder for candidates to convey an independent message to voters.