Key facts
- Ships are increasingly using the northern, Iranian-controlled traffic lane in the Strait of Hormuz.
- On July 15, 13 of 18 inbound transits used Iran's northern route, with only one using the southern route.
- Eight of 11 outbound transits on July 15 utilized Iran's northern route.
- Overall commercial traffic through the strait has fallen to approximately 22% of prewar levels.
- Global energy prices have risen due to the reduced traffic.
Ships navigating the Strait of Hormuz are increasingly opting for the northern traffic lane, controlled by Iran, amid a recent escalation of attacks on commercial vessels and retaliatory strikes by the U.S. on Iranian targets. Data from vessel-tracking service Windward indicates a significant shift, with a majority of transits on July 15 utilizing the Iranian-controlled route. Out of 18 vessels entering the Mideast Gulf through the strait on July 15, 13 used the northern, Iranian-controlled lane, while only one transited the southern, U.S.-supported corridor. The routes of four other vessels could not be determined as their Automatic Identification Systems were switched off. For vessels exiting the Mideast Gulf, eight out of eleven transited Iran's northern route, with one using the southern path and two untracked. This change in traffic patterns has led to overall commercial vessel traffic through the strait falling to approximately 22% of prewar levels. The U.S. continues to advocate for vessels to use the southern route along Oman's coast, which has been targeted by Iran. Iran views transits on routes not under its control as violations of a recently broken interim agreement and a challenge to its authority over the waterway. The bifurcation of traffic lanes, with the northern route running along the Iranian coast and the southern route along Oman's coast, is attributed to suspected Iranian-placed mines in the central transit lanes. Only three commodity vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday, a record low since May, with most ships redirected or stopped due to the U.S. resumed blockade on the Strait. Global energy prices have risen due to the lack of traffic passing through the Strait.