Key facts
- Canaccord Genuity analysts called metallization a major blind spot in western supply chain development, per the report.
- Canaccord expects magnet plant capacity outside China to more than triple to about 70,000 tonnes by 2030.
- Non-Chinese metal and alloy capacity is expected to reach just 38,000 tonnes over the same period, Canaccord said.
- The Pentagon guarantees MP Materials a minimum price of $110 per kilogram for NdPr under a 10-year agreement.
- REalloys said it holds rights to about 80% of the Saskatchewan Research Council's expanded output, including roughly 525 tonnes of NdPr metal annually.
- US manufacturers buy about 48,000 tonnes of rare earth magnets a year, and the US made just 300 tonnes in 2025, per the report.
Samarium sells for as much as 346 times more in North America than in China, and the report presents that gap as a preview of what American industry would pay if Beijing stopped exporting. Outside China, dysprosium costs five times as much and yttrium more than 100 times as much, according to the report, which did not date the figures.
Jet engines, industrial motors, EVs, wind turbines and medical scanners use rare earth magnets, and most US manufacturers still buy them from China at Chinese prices. The report says Japan's government has asked Washington for help before its yttrium runs out at year-end.
Canaccord Genuity analysts estimate China controls more than 90% of the world's 210,000 tonnes of capacity to reduce rare earth oxides to metal and cast them into alloy strip, and called that step a major blind spot in western supply chain development. The strip casters that make the alloy now take up to two years to deliver, and Canaccord's channel checks found buying them from China is impossible under current export controls, the report said.
Canaccord expects magnet plant capacity outside China to more than triple to about 70,000 tonnes by 2030, while non-Chinese metal and alloy capacity reaches just 38,000 tonnes, roughly half what those plants will need. ING has warned China's grip may outlast this decade because the bottleneck is industrial rather than geological, per the report.
Washington has begun intervening to protect domestic production. Under a 10-year agreement with MP Materials, the Pentagon guarantees a minimum price of $110 per kilogram for NdPr and makes up the difference when benchmark prices fall below that level.
REalloys operates a facility in Euclid, Ohio, producing rare earth metals, alloys and magnet materials, and says it has the only operating heavy rare earth metallization capability in North America. The company says it holds rights to approximately 80% of the Saskatchewan Research Council's expanded output, including roughly 525 tonnes of NdPr metal annually, and a 15-year offtake agreement covering 15% of Phase 1 production from Critical Metals Corp.'s Tanbreez project in Greenland. Under a Defense Logistics Agency contract it is designing a 300-tonne-per-year facility for samarium and gadolinium metal. REalloys reported $122.4 million in cash at the end of June and says its Saskatchewan and metallization expansions are fully funded.