Key facts
- Senate Republican sources said a reconciliation package to fund the Pentagon and the Iran war now looks unlikely.
- Senate Republicans and Democrats increasingly expect annual funding bills, including Defense Department money, to be pushed into 2027.
- Concern is rising that Congress's 65-year streak of passing the National Defense Authorization Act is in jeopardy.
- Democrats picked up at least seven Senate seats and at least 39 House seats, per the report.
- Government funding is due to expire on Dec. 11, with aides anticipating another short-term measure through March.
- Senate Appropriations Chair Susan Collins was defeated by Democratic challenger Troy Jackson in Tuesday's election.
Republican hopes of completing a large part of President Trump's agenda in the lame-duck session of Congress are fading after the party's losses in Tuesday's election, Republican aides on Capitol Hill said, in a report published November 6, 2026.
Senate Republican sources said talk before the election of pushing a budget reconciliation package through Congress to fund the Pentagon and the Iran war by circumventing a Democratic filibuster now looks unlikely, after GOP candidates lost handily even in red states such as Texas, South Carolina and Kansas. Vice President Vance blamed the unpopularity of the war with Iran for the losses, and Senate Republican sources acknowledged the conflict weighed on the party.
Senate Republicans and Democrats increasingly expect the annual funding bills, including money for the Defense Department, to be pushed into 2027. There is rising concern that Congress's 65-year streak of passing the National Defense Authorization Act is in jeopardy.
Senate Republican sources questioned whether permitting reform legislation, scheduled for the floor the following week, or the farm bill, a priority of Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.), can pass before Christmas, with Democrats looking toward majorities in the Senate and House in January. One senior GOP aide said the logistics of passing a budget resolution and a follow-up reconciliation package to fund the Pentagon and Trump's emergency request for supplemental defense funding is going to be difficult, adding: "I don't know if there's an appetite there."
Republican aides said that even if Thune and Senate Budget Committee Chairman Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) coalesce 50 Republican votes behind a reconciliation plan, it would consume weeks of floor time and face uncertain prospects in the House. A second senior GOP aide said the House is going to have some attendance problems getting members back, and that there are strong doubts House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) can persuade all Republican colleagues to return for a six-week sprint. House Republicans hold a 218-seat majority, so a few absences could derail a reconciliation package that would get no Democratic votes.
Republicans fear permitting reform, which appeared to have strong momentum at the end of September, may also be in jeopardy after Democrats exceeded expectations by picking up at least seven Senate seats and at least 39 House seats. One Republican aide said on Thursday: "I'll be surprised" if permitting reform passes. The aide pointed to comments by Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) on Wednesday questioning whether a final deal would be reached amid opposition from environmental groups. Schumer said: "We have a bipartisan group working on permitting reform and hopefully they'll come up" with a deal. A second GOP aide said Schumer's comments appeared to walk back Democratic enthusiasm for legislation that the two lead Democratic negotiators, Senators Martin Heinrich (N.M.) and Sheldon Whitehouse (R.I.), had touted weeks earlier.