Key facts
- Poland and Hungary are implementing new restrictions on foreign labor.
- These measures are aimed at appeasing public opinion and countering nationalist political narratives.
- Poland's government reduced non-EU work permits by 22% last year.
- Hungary has halted visa issuance for workers from the Philippines, Georgia, and Armenia.
- Economists warn these policies could negatively impact economic growth and exacerbate labor shortages.
- Businesses in both countries are experiencing difficulties with permit processing and worker availability.
Poland and Hungary are implementing measures to curb foreign labor, a move driven by political considerations to counter nationalist rivals and appease public opinion, despite significant concerns from economists and business leaders about the potential negative impact on economic growth.
Both Prime Minister Peter Magyar of Hungary and Prime Minister Donald Tusk of Poland have faced accusations of being too lenient on immigration. In response, Poland's government reduced work permits for non-EU citizens by 22% last year. Hungary's new government has stopped issuing worker visas to individuals from the Philippines, Georgia, and Armenia, signaling a broader regulatory effort.
Public sentiment in both nations largely supports these restrictions. Surveys indicate a majority in Poland favor fewer non-EU migrants, while a significant portion of Hungarians are opposed to or prefer limited numbers of migrants from poorer countries. This public stance contrasts sharply with economic realities.
Economists, including Marcin Tomaszewski from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), warn that reduced labor forces will slow growth and decrease tax revenues, particularly challenging for aging populations. The Polish Economic Institute (PIE) forecasts a potential shortfall of 2.1 million workers in Poland by 2035, which could reduce GDP by 6% to 8%. Non-EU workers already contribute substantially to Poland's economic output.
Polish officials acknowledge the delicate balance between employer demands and managing the transition from an emigration to a migration country, stating a desire to avoid an economy reliant on cheap labor. However, businesses are reporting lengthy delays in processing work and residence permits, with some skilled workers opting for countries offering faster visa solutions, such as Denmark.
In Hungary, the Master Good poultry producer has indicated that new migration policies could force it to halt factory expansion, a move that Prime Minister Magyar has publicly criticized, suggesting the company could hire locally if it offered higher wages. The owner countered that its Filipino staff are essential due to demographic trends and a lack of local workers for such jobs.