Key facts
- Oxford Economics expects real US GDP growth of 2.5% in 2027, up from 2.2% expected for 2026.
- Oxford Economics forecasts US housing starts falling 2.4% in 2027, a second tough year for homebuilders.
- Median existing-home prices are forecast to rise 3.7% in 2027, per Oxford Economics, after 1.7% in 2026.
- Anirban Basu of Sage Policy Group said warehouse, office and housing construction has dwindled.
- Bill Conerly said families seeking mortgages compete for credit with AI infrastructure borrowers and government deficits.
Oxford Economics forecast that US housing starts would fall 2.4% in 2027, a second difficult year for single-family homebuilders, according to an economic outlook published by Pallet Enterprise. The firm projected real US GDP growth of 2.5% in 2027, a small increase from the 2.2% expected when 2026 figures are tallied.
Bernard Yaros Jr., lead US economist at Oxford Economics, said gains in financial wealth were supporting spending by wealthier households while the AI infrastructure buildout had driven business investment. He forecast median existing-home prices rising 3.7% in 2027, after 1.7% in 2026 and 1.9% in 2025.
Mortgage rates were approaching 7% toward the end of 2026, the report said, and homebuilders were working through a stock of unsold homes. Anirban Basu, chairman and CEO of Sage Policy Group, said warehouse, office and housing construction had dwindled outside data centers and related energy projects.
Bill Conerly, principal of Conerly Consulting, said families seeking mortgages were competing for credit with companies including SpaceX and Anthropic and with US and Chinese government borrowing, while the global supply of savings had not increased much. He said he remained not too optimistic about residential construction, citing slow population growth and immigration restrictions.