Key facts
- The New York Fed's October survey found the expected chance of a higher jobless rate a year ahead at its highest since April 2020.
- Respondents saw a greater chance of involuntarily losing a job in October, though that expectation remained at relatively low levels.
- The expected chance of finding new work after a job loss rose in October, the survey found.
- Inflation expectations matched September: 3.9% at one year, 3.3% at three years and 3% at five years.
- Households expected a more moderate rise in gasoline prices a year ahead than they did in September.
- Views on current household finances improved slightly from September, while one-year-ahead finance expectations were steady.
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York said on November 9, 2026, that its October Survey of Consumer Expectations showed households more worried about the labor market outlook. Projections that the jobless rate will be higher a year from now reached their highest level since April 2020, a reading recorded in the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Respondents also said in October that they saw a greater chance of involuntarily losing a job, although that expectation remained at relatively low levels. Their expected chance of finding new work after a job loss was higher in October.
The labor-market findings came alongside steady inflation expectations. Respondents saw inflation at 3.9% a year from now, 3.3% in three years and 3% in five years, all matching the September survey and all above the Federal Reserve's 2% target. Expectations across a range of commodities were mixed, with households expecting a more moderate increase in gasoline prices a year from now than in September.
The survey found views on current household finances improved a bit relative to September, while expectations for finances a year from now were steady. October's readings on access to credit now and in the future were unchanged.
The report was conducted over October, as Americans headed into midterm elections that led to broad-based Democratic gains, including control of both houses of Congress. Voters went to the polls amid other surveys showing a sour national mood, as Americans struggled with high inflation that the report attributes to President Donald Trump's trade tariffs and the Middle East war.
The New York Fed report is most closely watched for its inflation readings. Fed officials are broadly expected to raise interest rates at the early December policy meeting as they work to bring inflation back to target. On November 6, the government reported that the job market showed unexpected strength in October, with a 165,000 gain and a jobless rate ebbing to 4.1%, alongside strong upward revisions to recent hiring data. Fed officials have regularly described the job market as low-hire, low-fire.