Key facts
- Combined ad spending in the Texas Senate race has exceeded $500 million.
- Elon Musk contributed $158 million to the Senate Leadership Fund.
- Republican groups have spent over $100 million nationally on ads since August 1.
- Texas PAC has spent nearly $149 million supporting Paxton.
- Democrat James Talarico raised $64 million from July through September.
Texas Democrats' best chance at a statewide win in more than three decades is facing a significant influx of Republican funding, with Elon Musk and other donors contributing hundreds of millions to support Senate candidate Ken Paxton. With early voting underway and two weeks remaining until the November 3 election, the impact of this late spending remains uncertain, as polls indicate few undecided voters.
Republican strategists acknowledge an enthusiasm gap among their own voters, largely due to concerns over the cost of living and the war with Iran, but claim internal polling shows this gap has narrowed. To energize the base, Republican groups have focused on culture-war themes, spending over $100 million nationally on ads accusing Democrats of supporting controversial procedures for children.
The race between Paxton and Democrat James Talarico is on pace to become the most expensive US Senate contest ever, with combined advertising spending exceeding $500 million. Talarico has maintained a slight lead within the margin of error, making it Texas' most competitive statewide race since 1994. While outside groups backing Paxton have outspent Democratic-aligned groups significantly, Talarico has offset this disadvantage through grassroots fundraising.