Key facts
- Nine of 16 redrawn Republican-leaning districts are now competitive or expected to flip to Democrats.
- A 10th redrawn Republican district was thrown out by courts.
- Trump's declining popularity, particularly among Latino voters, has impacted the competitiveness of redrawn districts.
Republicans, at President Donald Trump's urging, undertook an extensive mid-decade redistricting effort to secure their House majority. However, Trump's declining popularity has significantly diminished the expected gains, with many previously safe Republican districts now considered competitive or likely to flip to Democrats.
Initially, Republicans had increased their advantage in 16 redrawn districts. A Reuters analysis now shows nine of those districts are either expected to go to Democrats or are too close to call, while one was invalidated by courts. The strategy, which saw Democrats gain an edge in only six districts, has been undermined by Trump's low approval ratings, influenced by the war in Iran and high gas prices.
Analysts note that the maps in Texas and Florida may have overestimated continued Republican support among Hispanic voters. While the overall House map is still considered better for Republicans than before redistricting, the number of expected pickups has fallen considerably. Some of these newly drawn districts are seeing significant campaign spending due to their competitiveness.