Key facts
- Republicans hold a narrow majority in the US House of Representatives.
- Democrats need a net gain of four seats to control the chamber.
- Several key House races are considered toss-ups or potential flip opportunities.
- Campaign spending in many of these races is substantial, with both parties investing heavily.
- Some Republican incumbents are facing challenges due to shifting district demographics or personal controversies.
Republicans are defending a narrow majority in the US House of Representatives in the upcoming midterm elections, with history suggesting Democrats could gain seats. However, Republican redistricting efforts may complicate Democrats' path to regaining control. Several key races across the country are being closely watched as indicators of the broader political landscape.
In New York, US Representative Mike Lawler faces Democrat Cait Conley in a district that Kamala Harris won in 2024, making Lawler one of the most vulnerable House Republicans. Despite Lawler outraising Conley and Republican groups outspending Democrats, polls show a tight race.
Texas Republicans' redistricting efforts have put three South Texas seats in play. Democratic Representatives Vicente Gonzalez and Henry Cuellar are running in districts President Donald Trump would have carried by 10 percentage points, while an open seat pits Republican Carlos De La Cruz against Democrat Johnny Garcia.
In North Carolina, US Representative Don Davis is seeking reelection in a district redrawn to favor Republicans, though Democrats have outspent Republicans in the race. Maine's 2nd Congressional District, vacated by centrist Democrat Jared Golden, presents a flip opportunity for Republicans, with former Governor Paul LePage facing state auditor Matt Dunlap.
Ohio's 7th District, once considered safe for Republican Max Miller, is now a toss-up due to domestic abuse allegations against Miller and a smaller margin of victory in 2024. In Iowa, Representative Mariannette Miller-Meeks faces a rematch against Democrat Christina Bohannan, with cost-of-living concerns and Trump's unpopularity potentially playing a role.
Florida Republican Representative Maria Elvira Salazar, who represents a district Trump won by nearly 15 points, has publicly disagreed with the president on immigration, signaling a potential shift among Latino voters. In Washington state, centrist Democrat Marie Gluesenkamp Perez, who has bucked her party on procedural votes, faces a challenge from Republican John Braun in a district Trump narrowly won.
Democrats are also targeting Kentucky's 6th District, where Republican incumbent Andy Barr is running for the Senate, pitting Ralph Alvarado against Zach Dembo. In California, a redistricting effort has pitted two Republican incumbents, Ken Calvert and Young Kim, against each other, while Democrat Doris Matsui faces a challenge from democratic socialist Mai Vang.