Key facts
- Mexico's economy is likely to have recovered in the second quarter.
- Gross domestic product is forecast to grow 1.3% between April and June.
- This would be the best quarterly performance since the first quarter of 2022.
- Industrial activity is expected to drive the recovery.
- Annual GDP growth is estimated at 1.5%.
Mexico's economy is anticipated to have rebounded in the second quarter, with a Reuters poll of 11 analysts forecasting a 1.3% increase in gross domestic product (GDP) from April to June. This projected growth follows a 0.6% contraction in the preceding quarter and would represent the strongest quarterly performance since the first quarter of 2022.
The expected improvement is attributed to a revival in industrial sectors, including manufacturing, mining, and construction, alongside continued, albeit moderate, growth in services. This aligns with recent monthly economic indicators, such as the IOAE, which predicted an expansion in economic activity in June after a contraction in May.
On an annual basis, GDP is estimated to have grown by 1.5%, a notable increase from the 0.2% growth recorded in the first quarter. Despite these optimistic projections, the International Monetary Fund recently revised its growth forecast for Mexico's economy this year down to 1.2% from 1.6%. The Mexican government, however, maintains a more optimistic outlook, expecting GDP to grow between 1.8% and 2.8% this year, surpassing the market's forecast of 1.1%.