Key facts
- Major global investment banks' average forecast for South Korea's 2026 economic growth reached 3 percent by the end of June.
- This is the first time the average forecast has hit the 3 percent mark.
- The improved outlook is attributed to strong semiconductor exports driven by demand for AI chips.
- South Korea's exports hit a record $102.25 billion in June, with semiconductor exports nearly tripling.
- The Bank of Korea's first-quarter GDP growth was revised up to 1.8 percent.
Major global investment banks have collectively raised their average forecast for South Korea's economic growth in 2026 to 3 percent, marking the first time this milestone has been reached. This upward revision, compiled by the Korea Center for International Finance based on data from eight major banks including JP Morgan and Citi, reflects a 0.2 percentage point increase from the previous month.
Several prominent institutions revised their projections upwards. JP Morgan increased its forecast to 3.7 percent from 3 percent, while Citi raised its outlook to 3.5 percent from 3 percent. Barclays and Goldman Sachs each anticipate 2.7 percent growth, and HSBC and UBS forecast 2.8 percent. Bank of America projected 3.1 percent, and Nomura forecast 2.4 percent.
The improved economic outlook is largely attributed to robust semiconductor exports, which have surged due to high global demand for AI-related chips. In June, South Korea's total exports reached a record $102.25 billion, a 70.9 percent increase year-on-year, with semiconductor exports nearly tripling to $44.82 billion. The Bank of Korea reported that the country's GDP expanded 1.8 percent in the first quarter, exceeding its preliminary estimate. Consequently, the central bank is widely expected to raise its 2026 growth forecast in August from its current projection of 2.6 percent.