Key facts
- Labour has taken a narrow lead over Reform UK in a recent poll.
- Labour holds 26% of the voter share, while Reform UK has 25%.
- The Conservative Party's support has fallen to 20%.
- Andy Burnham's approval rating rose to 17, while Nigel Farage's dropped to -24.
- The cost of living is the primary concern for voters.
Labour has taken a narrow lead over Reform UK in the latest City AM/Freshwater Strategy poll, marking the first time the governing party has held an advantage in over a year and a half. Labour now stands at 26% of the voter share, just ahead of Reform UK's 25%. The Conservative Party saw its support slip by three points to 20%, as Kemi Badenoch faces a new political opponent. The Greens and Liberal Democrats each hold 11% of the voter share.
This rise in popularity for Labour offers a significant boost after a period of declining support under Sir Keir Starmer. While the poll's margin of error means the difference between Labour and Reform UK is slight, the shift indicates a potential change in voter sentiment. Andy Burnham, in his first two months as Prime Minister, has focused on plans for "good growth in every postcode," including opening 'Number 10 North' in Manchester and announcing tax cuts on energy bills and business rates for pubs and music venues.
Burnham's approval rating jumped five points to 17 in September, placing him in positive territory alongside Badenoch and Sir Ed Davey, who both scored three. In contrast, Nigel Farage's approval ratings have fallen to -24 amid intensified scrutiny over donations to Reform UK. Zack Polanski's score improved slightly to -20. In a three-way contest for preferred Prime Minister, Burnham leads by 24 points, with 45% backing him over Farage and Badenoch, who each have 21%. Badenoch wins a head-to-head against Farage by 52% to 27%.
However, more challenging decisions may lie ahead for Burnham, as economists predict tax rises are likely in the upcoming Budget. The cost of living remains the top voter issue, a position it has held for about a year, surpassing concerns about reducing immigration and improving healthcare. The poll surveyed 1,249 eligible UK voters online between September 4-6, 2026, with a margin of error of +/- 2.8%.