Key facts
- Kazakhstan's oil production fell 8.4% short of its target for the first eight months of 2026, totaling 61.7 million tons.
- The country cut its annual production forecast to 96 million tons from 100 million tons.
- Approximately 80% of Kazakhstan's oil exports rely on the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) route to Novorossiysk, Russia.
- A drone attack on September 8 disrupted a CPC oil loading facility.
- The EU imported 52.4 million tons of Kazakh crude in 2024, making it the bloc's third-largest external supplier.
Kazakhstan, a significant oil producer, is unable to increase output to offset a potential global oil shortage due to production challenges and export route disruptions, industry analysts said. Experts predict a surge in energy prices as the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, Russia faces sanctions, and Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline has been impacted by drone attacks.
Kazakhstan's oil industry is grappling with falling production and threatened export options. For the first eight months of 2026, production was 8.4% below target, reaching 61.7 million tons. Scheduled maintenance at the Karachaganak oil and gas field, one of the country's largest, is expected to further hinder capacity, according to Kazinform, citing industry expert Nurlan Zhumagulov. These factors led the government to reduce its annual production forecast to 96 million tons from 100 million tons, down from 99.6 million tons produced in 2025.
Beyond production issues, Kazakhstan faces difficulties in getting its oil to market. Approximately 80% of its exports rely on the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) route to Novorossiysk, Russia. Both the pipeline and its terminal facilities have been targeted by repeated Ukrainian drone attacks, with the most recent disruption occurring on September 8 at an oil loading facility.
Kazakh officials have limited alternatives to the CPC. Efforts to increase exports via a trans-Caspian route to Azerbaijan, which ships crude westward through the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline, are constrained by logistical factors. Crude must be shipped across the Caspian by tankers, and BTC's capacity for Kazakh crude is limited. In 2025, CPC transported about 65 million tons of Kazakh crude, while BTC has an annual capacity of 2.2 million tons for Kazakh oil, according to Azerbaijani officials. Discussions are also underway to ship an additional 5 million tons via the Baku-Supsa pipeline.
Industry analyst Joseph Shumunov noted in a commentary for the Astana Times that building a new trans-Caspian pipeline to reduce dependence on CPC would require significant time, political will, and funding, which Kazakhstan cannot provide alone. He suggested that the European Union, which imported 52.4 million tons of Kazakh crude in 2024, making it the bloc's third-largest supplier, must help finance such projects to ensure westward diversification.