China's diesel and gasoline inventories have fallen to multi-month lows, raising the possibility of export curbs being imposed by Beijing. Gasoline stocks are at their lowest since 2022, while diesel inventories are at a 15-month low, according to JLC International. Such a move could exacerbate existing global diesel shortages.
A potential Chinese curb on fuel exports could exacerbate global diesel shortages, as demand is seasonally increasing and alternative suppliers are limited. This would impact global energy markets and potentially contribute to higher fuel prices.
China's diesel and gasoline inventories are declining, potentially leading Beijing to impose export curbs, according to a report citing data from Chinese commodity market research firm JLC International. Gasoline inventories at state-owned energy majors fell 2.9% last week to their lowest level since 2022, while diesel inventories are at a 15-month low after a 2.4% dip last week.
Energy Aspects analyst Jiana Sun told Bloomberg that with the domestic market tightening, there is an increasing risk that China could restrict monthly clean product exports to around 1.2 million tons in the fourth quarter. This would come after China imposed export curbs in the spring and early March, suspending new fuel export contracts and attempting to cancel existing shipments due to global market tightness. At that time, the ban resulted in gasoline and diesel stocks at state refiners reaching their highest levels since 2025 and 2024, respectively.
China began to relax these restrictions a month later, leading to a significant surge in exports in June, particularly for fuel oil, which hit a 2026 high. The gradual relaxation has continued since then. If China now moves to limit fuel exports to protect its domestic market, it would worsen existing global diesel shortages, as demand is seasonally climbing and there are limited alternative suppliers.