Key facts
- Ian Buck, a longtime hardware executive, has the highest prediction market odds of becoming Nvidia's next CEO at about 35.5%, per The Action Network's Ben Mendelowitz.
- CFO Colette Kress, named interim CEO, trails Buck by 10 points at 25.5% odds, Mendelowitz said.
- Kalshi gives Buck 35% odds and Polymarket 38%, with Kress at 15% on Polymarket, the report said.
- Arm Holdings CEO René Haas and AMD CEO Lisa Su are listed as leading external candidates, the report said.
- Former Apple CEO Tim Cook, touted by President Donald Trump as the best candidate, has about 6% odds on Polymarket, the report said.
- Odds of Huang's exit rose from 13.2% to 76.6% in three days before his resignation, Mendelowitz said.
Jensen Huang announced on November 12, 2026 that he would step down as CEO of Nvidia, the AI hardware company, and CFO Colette Kress was quickly named interim CEO. News had broken that Huang had a relationship with a woman suspected of being a Chinese spy, putting his future at the company in question before the announcement.
Prediction markets now point to longtime hardware executive Ian Buck as the most likely permanent successor. Multiple platforms give Buck the highest odds at about 35.5%, according to Ben Mendelowitz, a prediction markets analyst at betting and prediction markets analysis platform The Action Network. Kress trails Buck by 10 points at 25.5%, Mendelowitz said.
Behind them sit two leading external candidates, Arm Holdings CEO René Haas and AMD CEO Lisa Su. Former Apple CEO Tim Cook, whom President Donald Trump touted as the best candidate to replace Huang, has longshot odds of about 6% on Polymarket, the report said.
Platform figures differ. Kalshi gives Buck 35% odds and Polymarket 38%, with Kress at 15% on Polymarket, according to the report. Mendelowitz said that in the days before Huang's resignation, bettors rushed to wagers on when it might happen, with the odds of his exit rising from 13.2% to 76.6% in three days as news about his affairs continued to break.
Buck is a veteran engineer known for his role in developing the Nvidia Compute Unified Device Architecture (CUDA), a parallel computing platform used for GPU applications. Mendelowitz said Nvidia's succession remains far from settled and that a similar swing in the succession odds could emerge as new developments unfold.