Key facts
- Several movie studios and production companies sent formal warnings to employees about prediction market trading, per The Hollywood Reporter.
- The warnings say violations could lead to disciplinary action including termination, and bar sharing confidential information with friends or family.
- Restrictions cover bets on studio earnings, casting decisions and movie release dates, the warnings say.
- Columbia Law Professor Joshua Mitts told The Hollywood Reporter that most informed trading activity is extremely difficult to detect.
- Mitts' research counted approximately 210,000 suspicious bets on CFTC-regulated prediction markets between February 2024 and February 2026.
- Those trades generated around $143 million in profits, with the accounts recording a 70% win rate, per Mitts' research.
Several movie studios and production companies have sent formal warnings to employees telling them that trading on prediction markets using confidential information is prohibited, according to The Hollywood Reporter. The warnings say violations could result in disciplinary action, including termination.
The restrictions cover bets on sensitive industry developments such as studio earnings, casting decisions and movie release dates. Employees are also barred from passing confidential information to friends or family members who might use it to place trades.
The issue is not entirely theoretical. In February, a video editor working for YouTuber MrBeast was fired after reportedly making $5,000 from prediction market trades connected to content involving the online star, with the transactions drawing attention for unusual statistical patterns. Hollywood has also seen questions over betting activity around the next James Bond: prediction markets removed contracts on the casting decision after money was placed on actor Callum Turner, despite industry speculation pointing toward Jack Lowden, and integrity monitors reportedly raised concerns about a possible information leak. The next actor to play Bond has yet to be officially announced.
Entertainment has become one of the more active categories on prediction market platforms, following sports and political contracts, with users trading millions of dollars on questions such as which film will win the Oscar for Best Picture. Columbia Law Professor Joshua Mitts, who studies securities law, told The Hollywood Reporter that most informed trading activity is extremely difficult to detect.
According to Mitts' research, approximately 210,000 suspicious bets on CFTC-regulated prediction markets were placed between February 2024 and February 2026. Estimates put the profits from those trades at around $143 million, with the accounts recording a 70% win rate. Prediction market operators have their own reasons to monitor suspicious activity: if platforms become known as places where industry insiders have an advantage, ordinary customers may lose confidence in them.