A survey by the Center for Strategic and International Studies found that a majority of strategic elites in Japan and South Korea oppose or are uncertain about acquiring nuclear weapons. However, if one nation pursues nuclear armament, support in the other could surge, potentially destabilizing Northeast Asia.
The findings suggest that while current elite opinion in Japan and South Korea favors non-nuclear status, a regional arms race could be triggered if one nation deviates, significantly altering the geopolitical and security landscape of Northeast Asia.
A survey conducted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) indicates that strategic elites in both Japan and South Korea remain largely opposed to or uncertain about developing nuclear weapons. The survey, which concluded at the end of October, included responses from current and former government officials, parliamentarians, academics, think tank experts, and corporate executives.
According to the findings, approximately 75% of South Korean strategic elites and nearly 80% of their Japanese counterparts expressed opposition or uncertainty regarding their respective countries acquiring nuclear weapons. However, the report highlights a significant potential shift: should one of the two nations decide to pursue nuclear armament, support for such a move in the other country could rise rapidly.
CSIS experts suggest that this potential shift could have a more profound impact on nuclear stability in Northeast Asia than a reduction in the United States troop presence in the region. The survey was led by Victor Cha, president of the geopolitics and foreign policy department and Korea chair at CSIS, and Kristi Govella, CSIS senior adviser and Japan chair.