Key facts
- Israel is heading towards an election less than a month away that could change the country's political landscape.
- Most polls over the past two years have predicted Netanyahu's coalition would not secure a majority.
- Gadi Eisenkot, a former chief of staff of the Israel Defense Forces, is Netanyahu's main opponent.
- Eisenkot has ruled out forming a coalition with parties representing Palestinian citizens of Israel, who are projected to win 12 seats.
- The October 7 attacks are a significant factor for 68% of Jewish voters deciding how to cast their ballot, according to a poll.
- Food inflation in Israel has outpaced the broader consumer price index, rising 9.5% in two years.
Uncertainty pervades Jerusalem as Israel approaches an election less than a month away that could significantly alter the country's political trajectory, particularly in the wake of the October 7 Hamas attacks and ongoing conflicts. Polls suggest a close race, with neither Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's bloc nor the opposition parties projected to secure the 61 seats needed for a majority government.
Recent polling indicates a deadlock, with Jewish Israeli parties opposed to Netanyahu projected to win 52 seats, while Netanyahu's bloc is expected to take 51. Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party leads the projections with 22 seats, while Netanyahu's Likud is forecast to win 18. The fragmentation of the Knesset and the lack of a clear path to power for any single bloc are fueling unease among Israelis.
Many citizens express disillusionment with the political landscape. One resident noted a lack of trust in all candidates, stating, "I don’t see any future for this country." Public trust in Israeli institutions has also declined significantly since 2012.
The impact of the October 7 attacks is a dominant factor for voters, with a poll by the Israel Democracy Institute finding that 68% of Jewish respondents consider it a central element in their decision. This sentiment is echoed by some who believe the current government bears responsibility for the events.
Economic concerns, including record-high food prices and inflation exacerbated by the ongoing conflicts, are also weighing on voters. Some express frustration that political focus remains on war rather than the economy.
A contentious dispute over military conscription for the ultra-Orthodox community, which constitutes about 14% of the population, is also a significant issue. The supreme court ruled in 2024 that exemptions for Haredi men studying in religious seminaries lack legal basis, leading to protests and clashes. Anger over the handling of this issue and the response to protests could influence voting patterns among younger ultra-Orthodox individuals.
Despite the uncertainty and opposition's lead in some polls, Netanyahu retains a loyal base, with supporters emphasizing the need to "finish the job" in ongoing conflicts. Conversely, others are seeking a change in direction, with some looking to Eisenkot for a greater focus on education, social policy, and the economy.