Key facts
- Iran's rulers have concluded a confrontation with the U.S.
- Hardliners want to prioritize rearming and a tough stance in upcoming talks.
- The population is impoverished and angry, seeking economic relief and improved living standards.
- Failure to improve living standards risks renewed protests.
- An interim deal is expected to provide financial relief to Iran.
- The Revolutionary Guards have grown more powerful and may crack down on dissent.
Iran's theocratic rulers are facing significant domestic challenges following the end of a three-month confrontation with the U.S. While hardliners, energized by what they perceive as a victory, are pushing for rearmament and a firm stance in future negotiations, the general population is impoverished and angry, demanding economic relief and improved living standards. Officials acknowledge that failure to address public hardship could reignite mass protests, similar to those seen in January.
Sources indicate that any financial relief Iran receives from suspended sanctions or asset restoration is expected to be directed towards economic support, reconstruction, and boosting living standards. However, the country's economy is severely strained by high inflation, a depreciating currency, and widespread unemployment, exacerbated by war damage. Gaining long-term sanctions relief hinges on a broader deal regarding Tehran's nuclear program, a prospect viewed as distant.
Hardliners, including factions within the Revolutionary Guards and groups like the Paydari Front, feel their calls for a tougher stance against the West have been vindicated. Some are dismayed by the decision to negotiate with the U.S., especially after the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Despite this internal dissent, the Revolutionary Guards have grown in power and are reportedly prepared to crack down on both ideological hardliners and protesters to maintain control, particularly in the post-Khamenei era. The recent de facto retreat on public dress codes for women, following mass demonstrations, highlights the shifting social landscape and the potential for further challenges to hardline ideology.