Key facts
- India is forecast to experience below-average rainfall for the next two weeks, primarily impacting central and northern regions.
- Western disturbances, weather systems from the Mediterranean, are delaying the monsoon's progress.
- The monsoon, vital for India's agriculture, delivers about 70% of the country's annual rain.
- Delayed rainfall could impact the planting of summer crops like rice, cotton, soybeans, and pulses.
- India has already seen rainfall 26.5% below normal in the first ten days of June.
- The monsoon is anticipated to regain strength by the last week of June.
India is expected to receive below-average rainfall over the next two weeks, particularly in its central and northern regions, as "western disturbances" have slowed the progress of the annual monsoon, according to two senior weather bureau officials. These disturbances are weather systems originating from the Mediterranean Sea that can disrupt monsoon patterns.
The monsoon delivers approximately 70% of India's annual rainfall and is critical for an economy where nearly half of farmland lacks irrigation and about half the population relies on agriculture for their livelihood. The monsoon typically begins in early June and covers the entire country by mid-July, but this year its onset in Kerala was delayed by three days.
While southern states like Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, and parts of southern Maharashtra are anticipated to receive good rainfall, central and northern regions are likely to experience significantly below-normal rainfall. This could delay the planting of crucial summer-sown crops such as rice, cotton, soybeans, and pulses. However, officials noted that the monsoon is expected to gain momentum in the last week of June, potentially mitigating the impact on planting if early July rains are adequate. In the first ten days of June, India recorded rainfall 26.5% below normal. The India Meteorological Department forecasts the entire monsoon season may receive 90% of the long-period average (LPA) rainfall, with June expected at 92% of LPA, influenced by the emergence of El Nino.