Key facts
- El Nino conditions have returned to the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
- The India Meteorological Department (IMD) warned El Nino may intensify during the southwest monsoon season.
- Historically, strong El Nino events have affected kharif crop output, particularly oilseeds and pulses.
- The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is in a neutral phase and expected to remain so throughout the monsoon season.
- The IMD revised its southwest monsoon forecast to 90% of the long-period average.
- The monsoon reached the Indian mainland on June 4, three days behind schedule.
El Nino conditions have returned to the equatorial Pacific Ocean and could strengthen during the southwest monsoon season, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Friday. This raises concerns over rainfall during the country's largest sowing window, potentially affecting the output of key kharif crops like oilseeds and pulses.
Historically, strong El Nino events have been associated with weak and erratic rainfall and above-normal temperatures, impacting agricultural productivity. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), a climate phenomenon that can influence monsoon rainfall, is currently in a neutral phase and is expected to remain so throughout the four-month monsoon season, adding to concerns about rainfall distribution.