Key facts
- Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz have recovered to about two-thirds of pre-conflict levels.
- Gulf region crude and oil product exports are estimated at 15-16 million barrels per day.
Goldman Sachs reports that oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz have recovered to approximately two-thirds of pre-conflict levels, with Gulf region exports reaching 15-16 million barrels per day. This rebound is expected to cap oil prices despite ongoing Middle East tensions.

The recovery in oil flows through a critical global chokepoint suggests that supply disruptions may be less severe than feared, potentially capping oil price upside even if geopolitical tensions persist in the Middle East.
Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz have recovered to approximately two-thirds of pre-conflict levels, according to a note from Goldman Sachs analysts. Total crude and oil product exports from the Gulf region have risen to an estimated 15 million to 16 million barrels per day, though this remains 7 to 8 million barrels below pre-war levels. March flows through the Strait were between 5 million and 6 million barrels per day.
CENTCOM Commander Admiral Bradley Cooper stated that U.S. forces have secured full control of maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, asserting that Iran has been completely excluded from its oil exports. U.S. forces have also cleared Iranian-laid mines, enabling commercial traffic to resume under American protection.
Meanwhile, Iran is reportedly preparing a list of conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, with Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, indicating discussions about reopening the strait and gradually increasing traffic are planned. Oil prices saw a slight decrease to below $83 per barrel on Friday.
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