Foreign Affairs essay weighs China's soybean reliance as Taiwan Strait deterrent

Foreign Affairs published an essay arguing that China's reliance on soybean imports is a vulnerability that analysts often leave off the list when assessing the odds of conflict in the Taiwan Strait. The piece said Beijing has tried to limit that dependence by building stockpiles and diversifying suppliers, but that soybean stockpiles might last only a few months.

The essay said domestic production of staple grains such as wheat, rice and corn covers more than 90% of Chinese consumption, while the country remains dependent on foreign producers for soybeans, beef and barley. It said the share of China's food supply provided by imports grew from 6% in 2000 to 34% in 2020, and that analysts predict it will reach 41% by 2030.

According to the essay, soybeans supply proteins in animal feed that other sources cannot replicate, and soybean oil makes up nearly half of China's cooking oil market. It said Chinese leader Xi Jinping identified ensuring the security of food, energy resources and critical industrial supply chains as essential to national security at the 20th Party Congress in 2022.