Key facts
- President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Senator Flavio Bolsonaro are in a close race for Brazil's upcoming presidential election.
- A Nexus/BTG Pactual poll indicates a simulated second-round runoff would result in 46% support for Lula and 45% for Bolsonaro.
- The same poll shows Lula leading Bolsonaro 41% to 37% in a first-round scenario.
- The gap between the two frontrunners has narrowed since a previous poll conducted on July 27.
Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Senator Flavio Bolsonaro are running neck and neck ahead of the October presidential election, according to a Nexus/BTG Pactual poll released on Monday. The poll indicates that Bolsonaro has narrowed the gap with the incumbent.
In a simulated second-round runoff, Lula would receive 46% of voter support compared to 45% for Bolsonaro. This represents a shift from a July 27 Nexus poll, which showed Lula leading Bolsonaro 47% to 43%.
In a first-round scenario, Lula is projected to lead with 41% of the votes. Bolsonaro follows with 37%, while Ronaldo Caiado garners 5%, Renan Santos 4%, and Romeu Zema 3%. The previous poll had Lula at 42% and Bolsonaro at 33% in the first round.
If no candidate secures more than 50% of valid votes in the first round, the top two contenders will advance to a runoff election. Lula, 80, was officially named the Workers' Party candidate for a fourth non-consecutive term, pledging to increase defense investment and protect Brazil's rare earths.
The Nexus survey was conducted between July 31 and August 2, polling 2,002 individuals with a margin of error of 2 percentage points.