Key facts
- ExxonMobil expects refining profit to rise $4.5 billion in Q3 due to soaring margins.
- Upstream earnings are projected to fall $1.3 billion in Q3 amid lower Brent crude prices.
- Divesting upstream assets is expected to boost earnings by $700 million.
ExxonMobil signaled on Friday that higher refining margins during the third quarter could boost its downstream profit by $4.5 billion compared with the previous three months. Refining margins have soared due to the ongoing Iran war, which has restricted energy exports through the Strait of Hormuz, as well as Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries. The resulting higher fuel prices have created political risks for the administration of US President Donald Trump ahead of the midterm elections in November. The top US oil producer's expected refining boom could further draw the ire of the president, who complained in August that Exxon and Chevron were making "too much money". Upstream earnings could take a $1.3 billion hit compared with the second quarter, as the average closing Brent benchmark price declined about 5.6% during the third quarter. The company's move to divest some upstream assets will boost earnings by $700 million. Exxon will release full third-quarter results on October 30.