Key facts
- Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball has reclassified three U.S. Senate races.
- The Alaska race moved from leans Republican to toss-up.
- The North Carolina race moved from toss-up to leans Democratic.
- The Ohio race moved from leans Republican to toss-up.
- All three seats are currently held by Republicans.
- President Trump's low approval rating is cited as a contributing factor for the shifts.
Election handicapper Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball has adjusted its ratings for three U.S. Senate races, signaling a potential shift in the balance of power in the upper chamber. The Alaska and Ohio races, previously considered leaning Republican, are now classified as toss-ups. The North Carolina race has moved from a toss-up to leaning Democratic.
These changes are significant as Republicans currently hold a 53-47 majority in the Senate, and Democrats need to flip four seats to regain control. The handicapper's adjustments suggest a tighter race than previously anticipated, with President Trump's low approval ratings identified as a key factor influencing these shifts.
In Alaska, incumbent Republican Senator Dan Sullivan faces former Representative Mary Peltola. The state utilizes an open primary system and ranked-choice voting for its general election. In Ohio, incumbent Republican Senator Jon Husted is campaigning against former Senator Sherrod Brown, who recently led Husted by eight percentage points in a Fox News poll.
North Carolina's open seat, vacated by retiring Republican Senator Thom Tillis, features a contest between former Governor Roy Cooper (D) and former Republican National Committee Chair Michael Whatley (R). Most polling indicates Cooper holds a clear lead. The Senate Leadership Fund has announced plans to spend $71 million to support Whatley and target Cooper.